Election "Proof"

 

In order to believe that Harris☭Biden won the 2020 election, one must accept all the following factors as true. Most of them I've drawn from an excellent article by "Z-Man" found here; well worth a read.

  1. Contrary to half a century of history, a sitting President can increase his vote total by 17%, yet lose the election
  2. An unexciting rival who hardly campaigned increased his Party's vote total by 23%
  3. After a 70-year average turnout of 38% of the population, in 2020 it leaped to 46%, the highest ever
  4. While the Democrats scored well in the Presidential race, they lost seats in Congress; the alleged Prez vote was against the general trend
  5. With vote counts during the night of Nov. 3rd showing a widening lead for Trump, suddenly a single large batch of votes flipped the lead to Biden, in Wisconsin...
  6. and Michigan
  7. and Pennsylvania
  8. and Georgia and some others.

I don't think this, improbable though it is, constitutes "proof of fraud" in the legal sense. Lawyers, not unreasonably, demand a differend kind of proof; fingerprints, documents, witnesses, DNA etc. With 150 million votes to examine during only a few weeks, that's unlikely to appear. But let's estimate just how large is the improbability.

Counting 1.0 as the standard of normal, unsurprising, reliable and credible and 0.0 as wholly impossible, I've assigned a probabilty of truth to the eight factors above. You can do the same, and yours will differ. But for Biden to have won, all must be true; so the eight single probabilities must be multiplied.

Factor # Probability
1 0.5
2 0.7
3 0.8
4 0.7
5 0.8
6 0.8
7 0.8
8 0.8
Overall 0.08

That is, the overall probability that Biden truly won fair and square is 0.08 or 8%.  Correspondingly, the probability that the true winner is Donald Trump is 92%.

A fair name for the Biden administration is therefore a kleptocracy, and a neat nickname for Biden is "8% Joe."

Notice that my choices of probability are generous to Mr Biden. Some would reason that Factors 5 thru 8, for example, warrant not 0.8 but 0.4 at most; for the graphs in this article indicate a grossly unbelievable counting pattern. Subsitute that figure, and the overall probability that Trump is the true winner rises to 99.5%