22A008 Help! by Jim Davies, 2/22/2022

A funny thing happened, on the way out of the theater of the absurd known as the "Covid Pandemic": there's a serious shortage of labor. "Help Wanted" and "We're Hiring" notices appear everywhere. I've never seen the like of it.

Businesses, reeling from the savage government compulsion of 2020 to close down, are struggling to re-start, but cannot recruit enough staff. What gives?

I've puzzled over this, and read some of the ideas put forward by economists who think they are smart, and by a few who are actually smart. Result below: here's my take.

1. Employees are trading up. Faced with an unusually high demand for labor, suppliers of it are deserting their previous job if it was uninteresting and low-paid, and applying for one that's more interesting and better-paid. So the shortage affects blue-collar jobs most.

2. They fear infection. This fear is unjustified, it's a product of the government scam and its propaganda, but that theme is drummed up daily in every available mainstream medium and it's no surprise that many swallow it. So, why not stay home and ride out the supposed storm; Federal and State welfare programs have cushioned the financial effect.

3. Some resent the impositions of having to wear a face mask or produce one of the grotesquely mis-named "vax-passes" (there are no actual vaccines, so there cannot be any valid certificates of vaccination; they are better called "Submission Certificates" or "SubCerts.") It's too much hassle, at the very least, and fortunately quite a lot of people are uncomfortable with being marked as servile.

4. They have children to care for. Some mothers do not like the decrees that compel kids to get jabbed and wear face masks, so keep them home. Good for them! - they're quite right. So, especially if the job they used to have wasn't all that exciting, let's make lemonade out of the lemon.

5. They are retiring early. These are "boomers," born around 1960 and so now approaching customary retirement age and since they were laid off in 2020 by government force and are now around 60, they have a hard time finding work for oldsters and think what the heck, I'll ride this out until I can go on Social Security. They may have to tighten belts a bit in the meantime, but there are compensations: staying home isn't at all bad. There might even be grandkids to play with and even (shh!) educate.

All these play a part, but #5 may be the main one. Making do for two or three years until the SS kicks in means eating some of the seed corn, living for today instead of reserving resources for tomorrow, but some of these graying Boomers have been able to save a little, and as the b-sticker says, they can spend their kids' inheritance while health is better than it will be 15 years on.

It doesn't seem incredible to me that these five causes should together reduce the labor force by around 5%. Since the normal minimum for unemployment rates (people in-between jobs) is always also around 5%, these factors double unemployment! - even though offers are waiting.

Now let's compare this current situation with what will apply in the coming zero government society.

First, there will be no artificial government disruption of the economy with any bogus plague; for there will be no government to concoct one.

Second, even if some real pandemic were to occur, there would - for the same reason - be no decrees to stay home, close businesses, take jabs or wear masks. So the disruption would be far less than applies today with effect on the job market as in #s 1, 2, 3 and 4 above.

Third, people will retire from work whenever they please, taking into account whatever contractual arrangements they may have made with life insurance firms. Since they will not have suffered taxation during their working years, the nest-egg they accumulate will probably be a lot larger than we assumed for factor #5.

In short: even if some real but natural disruption occurs, it will by comparison be a non-event.